Attention poll junkies: How Rasmussen is skewing its polls

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Saturday October 20, 2012 · 6:58 PM PDT

2012/10/20 · 18:58

I know a lot of folks are poll junkies here. I am. That’s not a bad thing except when we set our emotional state to the presidential polls. Quick quiz: can you name exactly what time RAND, Rasmussen, and Gallup release their daily tracking polls? If you can answer 1 am Pacific time, 630 am Pacific time, and 10 am Pacific time, then you are a poll addict.

And if you’ve been watching the polls, you’ve seen that the national daily tracking polls are moving toward President Obama in the past few days. We can see this in PPP, Reuters, IBD. Even Gallup moved a tick.

But not Rasmussen. Now I know why.

Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com highlights in a piece how Rasmussen has made an important shift in its partisan weighting that makes it look like Republicans and Romney are doing better than they were just a week ago. It ain’t true. Join me after the jump to learn why.

David Domke

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Sunday June 03, 2012 · 3:22 PM PDT

2012/06/03 · 15:22

Our UW Election Eye crew -- a collection of two dozen U of Washington faculty and students writing a blog about politics with the Seattle Times -- made its way into mining country in Wisconsin and came away with some unvarnished despising of Scott Walker. Much more than we were expecting in the Northwest corner of the state.

This is a piece by a student we call the Thorpedo for his ability to get people to talk to him in candid terms. The opening excerpt:

MELLEN, Wisc. — In a scene ripped straight out of a script from the Andy Griffith Show in Mayberry, a dusty dinged-up pickup truck pulled up and parked along the shoulder of State Highway 13 in this tiny blue-collar town half an hour south of Lake Superior.
Out stepped the longest serving mayor in Wisconsin, Joe Barabe, holding his favorite fishing pole and looking resigned to a recall election victory this Tuesday by the man he called “an entirely worthless clown.”

Nobody worked harder than Barabe to defeat Scott Walker in his first governor’s race against Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett two years ago.

This 24-year serving mayor is furious over Walker’s attempt to strong-arm a mining bill he calls an “embarrassing act by a disgraceful governor.”

Full story is right here. More below the fold Read More

Scott Walker's college years -- his profs weigh in, unplugged

David Domke

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Thursday May 31, 2012 · 5:40 PM PDT

2012/05/31 · 17:40

There has been rampant speculation about what Scott Walker did or didn't do at Marquette University. One thing that mainstream media have failed to do is go and talk with the people who taught Walker. Our University of Washington reporting team of UW Election Eye did.

Here is our lede:

MILWAUKEE — Polite. Dishonest. Respectful. Conniving.
Only three men have a chance to wake up next Wednesday as governor of Wisconsin. One is Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. The others are the two personalities of Scott Kevin Walker.

Depending on whom you ask, the embattled Tea Party hero fighting for his political life was either an average, well-intentioned student at Marquette University — or a disillusioned, narcissistic buffoon devoid of any moral compass as he walked over friend and foe alike in repeated failed efforts to become student body president.

The full story is right here.

Just so y'all know: I am a prof at U of Washington and this piece was written by a student as part of our blog partnership with the Seattle Times. We're not trying to wave the flag for either Walker or Tom Barrett. We call 'em as we see 'em. And in this case we wanted to cover what others haven't.

Our full piece on Walker's college years is here.

When politics is social -- the view from Seattle on the Overpass Light Brigade

David Domke

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Wednesday May 30, 2012 · 7:34 AM PDT

2012/05/30 · 07:34

I am a prof at the University of Washington in Seattle. With a group of students, we have been writing a blog with the Seattle Times, titled UW Election Eye, on national politics for the last six months. Our goal is to tell personal, real stories.

Eight students and I are spending two weeks in Wisconsin finding and writing stories about the recall election.

Last weekend we hung out with the Overpass Light Brigade. You know them well here at DKos, I know. A number of them -- BatmanWI and Minvis for sure, are members of this community. They just had a rec'd diary yesterday. They're a generous people, and they gave us plenty of their time.

Three students in our team have put together a terrific post -- found right here-- that captures the OLB from an outsider's perspective. You may know everything in it, but we saw it from fresh eyes. I'd love to see this democratic form of engagement come to Seattle.

Some excerpts below the fold.

David Domke

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Tuesday October 28, 2008 · 7:21 PM PDT

2008/10/28 · 19:21

Professors at U.S. colleges and universities tend to be "duck and cover" types: they don't want to take stands, preferring to see nuance where others see right and wrong. It's the nature of the academic beast: mild-mannered professors don't get angry, they get troubled. There are sometimes good reasons this is so, but too often it's because profs are afraid of being called activists.

More than 150 profs have now gotten over such fears. These women and men have expertise in political communication -- rhetoric, journalism, advertising, and so on -- and have now stepped up and called out the racism of the McCain and Palin attacks on Barack Obama as a terrorist, and of the Republican Party more generally.

I'm one of the profs. Our statement is http://politicalcommunication.info/

More below the fold.

David Domke

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Sunday September 14, 2008 · 8:12 PM PDT

2008/09/14 · 20:12

Dear editors of traditional news outlets:

I'm a Professor of Communication and Head of Journalism at the University of Washington. I write as a supporter, not a critic.

For almost 100 years, "mainstream journalism" in America has strived for a practice of objectivity. That is, journalists at newspapers like the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times; the TV networks of ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN; and the newsmagazines of Time and Newsweek have sought to publicly convey their best assessments of reality, regardless of a reporter’s own values and political leanings. Opinions are left to sources, not reporters.

It’s not the chosen model of today's generation of bloggers, yet it's still a noble approach, one that has produced important news coverage. But a journalism of objectivity now faces a crisis -- and as a result, so does the nation.

David Domke

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Thursday May 01, 2008 · 9:25 PM PDT

2008/05/01 · 21:25

Let me cut straight to the chase. Kos posted earlier today about this comment by Hillary Clinton, but I must say more. I don't write as someone hostile to Clinton; I've been impressed by how hard she's fighting in this campaign. I'm a Barack Obama supporter, but if I could graft together the tenacity of Clinton and the temperament and vision of Obama, that would be my ideal candidate.

But I'm deeply offended by what Clinton said on Fox News Channel last night -- and how the Clinton campaign lied about it today. She said something arrogant, elitist, and offensive, and then the campaign lied. L-I-E-D. The spelled-out word will make sense after the fold.

David Domke

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Friday March 14, 2008 · 10:40 PM PDT

2008/03/14 · 22:40

On Friday afternoon on huffingtonpost and then Friday night on all three cable TV networks Barack Obama took steps to address his relationship with his pastor, Jeremiah Wright. You may believe Obama's words, you may not. I want to look at the big picture.

Thursday night in a talk on religion and politics that I gave to a well-educated audience in Seattle, a conservative audience member – someone who I like and appreciate, and who is troubled by the right’s exclusionary religious politics in recent decades – said that Obama, ironically, was going to have to now do something un-Christian. What this person meant was that Obama was going to have to throw his 20-year pastor, Wright, under the bus, denounce him, and declare him persona non grata.

I replied that the audience member had correctly nailed the politics of the matter – that today's political culture would demand exactly such a response by Obama. But I said that I truly hoped for something different. I said that how Obama responded would tell me much about who he really was -- as a person.

So, what have we gotten so far?

David Domke

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Friday February 22, 2008 · 8:41 PM PST

2008/02/22 · 20:41

I am a professor and head of journalism at the University of Washington, and on Thursday, Feb. 28, a dozen undergraduate students and I will travel to Texas to cover the presidential campaigns and March 4 primary and caucuses. We'll be based in Austin, and will be on the move to places like San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, heck maybe even Corpus Christi. We'll be writing for our website, seattlepoliticore.org, huffingtonpost, and a number of traditional news outlets around the Northwest. Our website is read by a large number of Northwest youth -- and some kossacks, thanks!

So, here's the thing: we want your input. We are looking for ideas -- anything you think the traditional media are missing or not giving adequate attention.

Obama and Clinton supporters: this is your chance to drive some of the media conversation about the Texas campaigns and dynamics. Fire away. And please recommend this diary so a large number of readers get a chance to feed us suggestions.

More info below.

David Domke

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Saturday February 09, 2008 · 9:56 PM PST

2008/02/09 · 21:56

This is how a team of 16 students at the University of Washington saw Democratic and Republican caucuses around King County today. King County includes heavily-blue Seattle and the purple Eastside of Lake Washington, which includes Microsoft-dominated Redmond.

We liveblogged the Seattle-area caucuses at seattlepoliticore.org. I'm the students' prof and head of journalism at the UW. The site's content is part journalism, part pundit, part political-newbies. Altogether, the site presents these caucuses through youthful eyes.

Along the way we learned something important about the Obama and Clinton campaigns. We didn't set out to learn this -- but the campaigns taught us loud and clear.

David Domke

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Friday February 08, 2008 · 9:11 PM PST

2008/02/08 · 21:11

On Saturday in Seattle, thousands who have never done anything political will attend Democratic Party caucuses to register a vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Other newbies will attend Republican caucuses -- though there may only 10 or so such folks in blue-as-blue-comes Seattle.

On Saturday in Seattle the majority of the state's 97 Democratic Party presidential delegates will be awarded.

On Saturday in Seattle we'll see if Obama or Clinton gain the momentum coming out of Super Tuesday.

On Saturday in Seattle 16 20-something University of Washington students will be at the caucuses and will chronicle the events. We'll be online and we hope you'll join us at least part of the day.

David Domke

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday January 27, 2008 · 1:20 PM PST

2008/01/27 · 13:20

According to exit polls in the South Carolina Democratic Primary, Barack Obama carried virtually every demographic group Saturday. Young and old, men and women, wealthy and less wealthy, high school educated and college educated, those in the lowland and those in the highland, self-identified Democrats and independents, married and unmarried. Notably, he did not win the White vote, but he carried 27% of White men and 22% of White women -- both well above recent recent poll projections, a reversal of what usually happens to black candidates when actual voting occurs.

Obama's success among these voters is tied to the religious campaign he's been running in South Carolina and nationally, a campaign that regularly gets mentioned here. But here's a question that I don't think we've taken up here yet, and it's one that strikes to the core of this nation -- and many who frequent this community here. Could Obama, an African American man, be where he's at in this campaign without the decidedly Christian elements he's emphasizing?

No way.

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Attention poll junkies: How Rasmussen is skewing its polls

WI miners, including state's longest-running mayor, All. In. for. Recall.

Scott Walker's college years -- his profs weigh in, unplugged

When politics is social -- the view from Seattle on the Overpass Light Brigade

Profs Step Up: Call out McCain/Palin racism

An open letter to the mainstream media

Clinton's "Rich people" comment on Fox: A-R-R-O-G-A-N-T and E-L-I-T-I-S-T

Who's Got the Courage?: Race, Religion and Nation in America

Obama and Clinton stories in Texas: This is your shot

Seattle's youth speak -- and only the Obama campaign cares (updated w/ student voices)

Saturday's Seattle Caucuses through Young Eyes

Why Emphasizing Faith is Essential for Obama